2023 Week 4 · Sep 23, 2023, 6:00 PM · Scheumann Stadium
Georgia Southern @ Ball State
Predicted scoreToss-up
Georgia Southern
28.3
Ball State
26.5
Ball State win probability: 45%
Margin (Ball State − Georgia Southern): -1.8 (80% range -22 to 18)
Total: 54.9 (80% range 31 to 80)
Actual: Georgia Southern 40 – Ball State 3 (margin error 35.2, total error 11.9)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 21 | 0.74% |
| 21 | 21 | 0.74% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.67% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.66% |
| 31 | 24 | 0.61% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.