2025 Week 14 · Nov 29, 2025, 5:00 PM · Yager Stadium
Ball State @ Miami (OH)
Predicted scoreLikely
Ball State
17.6
Miami (OH)
30.7
Miami (OH) win probability: 80%
Margin (Miami (OH) − Ball State): 13.1 (80% range -7 to 33)
Total: 48.3 (80% range 27 to 72)
Actual: Ball State 24 – Miami (OH) 45 (margin error 7.9, total error 20.7)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 24 | 0.83% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.81% |
| 14 | 24 | 0.76% |
| 10 | 24 | 0.76% |
| 10 | 21 | 0.74% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.