2025 Week 7 · Oct 11, 2025, 7:30 PM · Waldo Stadium
Ball State @ Western Michigan
Predicted scoreLean
Ball State
22.3
Western Michigan
27.5
Western Michigan win probability: 63%
Margin (Western Michigan − Ball State): 5.2 (80% range -14 to 25)
Total: 49.9 (80% range 27 to 73)
Actual: Ball State 0 – Western Michigan 42 (margin error 36.8, total error 7.9)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 24 | 0.80% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.73% |
| 14 | 17 | 0.70% |
| 24 | 28 | 0.69% |
| 21 | 17 | 0.66% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.