Middle Tennessee

Conference USA

2026 rating history

Point-in-time, recency-weighted opponent-adjusted efficiency — recomputed each week from strictly-prior games only.

Upcoming forecasts

Week	Opponent	Predicted score	Win prob
Week 8	@ Florida International	30.2–19.8	25%
Week 9	vs Kennesaw State	28.8–26.2	43%
Week 10	vs Western Kentucky	28.3–23.8	39%
Week 11	@ Liberty	35.0–20.0	17%
Week 12	@ Sam Houston	27.6–25.6	45%
Week 13	vs New Mexico State	28.2–25.9	45%

Past prediction accuracy — 2026

Week	Opponent	Actual	Predicted	Margin error
Week 1	vs Murray State	14–38	—	—
Week 2	@ Marshall	28–26	31.3–25.4	3.9
Week 3	vs Nevada	20–27	30.2–25.5	11.7
Week 4	@ Jacksonville State	23–13	29.8–24.3	4.5
Week 5	@ Kansas	55–0	34.9–19.7	39.7
Week 7	vs Delaware	30–33	26.5–26.0	3.4