2026 Week 9 · Oct 28, 2026, 11:00 PM · Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium
Kennesaw State @ Middle Tennessee
Predicted scoreToss-up
Kennesaw State
28.8
Middle Tennessee
26.2
Middle Tennessee win probability: 43%
Margin (Middle Tennessee − Kennesaw State): -2.7 (80% range -23 to 18)
Total: 55.0 (80% range 31 to 80)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 21 | 0.73% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.73% |
| 31 | 24 | 0.67% |
| 17 | 17 | 0.66% |
| 31 | 21 | 0.61% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:01 PM | -4.7 | 57.3 | 39% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:58 PM | -4.8 | 57.3 | 39% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:31:03 PM | -4.7 | 57.3 | 39% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:48:22 AM | -4.8 | 57.3 | 38% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:04:29 PM | -4.8 | 57.3 | 38% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:02:38 PM | -4.6 | 57.3 | 39% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:56:50 PM | -4.3 | 56.8 | 39% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:58:57 PM | -0.8 | 55.7 | 48% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:40:54 PM | -0.7 | 55.8 | 48% |
| 9/27/2026, 11:59:49 AM | -0.2 | 55.8 | 50% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:38:19 PM | -0.2 | 55.8 | 50% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:32:18 PM | 1.2 | 53.5 | 53% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:47:19 PM | -2.9 | 53.1 | 43% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:42:28 PM | -3.1 | 54.2 | 43% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:23:29 PM | -2.7 | 55.0 | 43% |