2026 Week 2 · Sep 12, 2026, 11:00 PM · Joan C. Edwards Stadium
Middle Tennessee @ Marshall
Predicted scoreLean
Middle Tennessee
25.4
Marshall
31.3
Marshall win probability: 64%
Margin (Marshall − Middle Tennessee): 5.9 (80% range -14 to 27)
Total: 56.7 (80% range 33 to 82)
Actual: Middle Tennessee 26 – Marshall 28 (margin error 3.9, total error 2.7)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 38 | 0.61% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.61% |
| 21 | 24 | 0.60% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.59% |
| 14 | 24 | 0.58% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:54:23 PM | 10.3 | 58.2 | 73% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:04:31 PM | 10.3 | 58.2 | 73% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:26:43 PM | 10.3 | 58.4 | 73% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:43:56 AM | 10.3 | 58.3 | 73% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:02:08 PM | 10.5 | 58.3 | 74% |
| 9/8/2026, 5:57:26 PM | 8.5 | 57.7 | 70% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:51:38 PM | 5.9 | 56.7 | 64% |