2026 Week 13 · Nov 28, 2026, 5:00 AM · Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium
New Mexico State @ Middle Tennessee
Predicted scoreToss-up
New Mexico State
28.2
Middle Tennessee
25.9
Middle Tennessee win probability: 45%
Margin (Middle Tennessee − New Mexico State): -2.2 (80% range -23 to 18)
Total: 54.1 (80% range 31 to 79)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 24 | 0.79% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.67% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.65% |
| 21 | 24 | 0.61% |
| 31 | 17 | 0.60% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:57:05 PM | -0.1 | 57.5 | 50% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:07:13 PM | -0.1 | 57.5 | 50% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:34:41 PM | -0.1 | 57.4 | 50% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:51:55 AM | -0.1 | 57.4 | 50% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:06:05 PM | -0.2 | 57.4 | 49% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:05:30 PM | 0.1 | 56.9 | 50% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:59:24 PM | -1.7 | 58.3 | 46% |
| 9/13/2026, 3:01:22 PM | -1.6 | 57.2 | 46% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:42:59 PM | -1.5 | 57.2 | 47% |
| 9/27/2026, 12:02:15 PM | -1.2 | 57.1 | 47% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:40:33 PM | -1.2 | 57.1 | 47% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:34:56 PM | 1.8 | 56.1 | 54% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:48:50 PM | -4.0 | 53.8 | 40% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:45:12 PM | -2.0 | 53.4 | 45% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:24:53 PM | -2.2 | 54.1 | 45% |