2026 Week 11 · Nov 14, 2026, 8:30 PM · Williams Stadium (VA)
Middle Tennessee @ Liberty
Predicted scoreLean
Middle Tennessee
27.2
Liberty
32.6
Liberty win probability: 63%
Margin (Liberty − Middle Tennessee): 5.5 (80% range -16 to 27)
Total: 59.8 (80% range 35 to 86)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 31 | 0.71% |
| 31 | 31 | 0.65% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.60% |
| 24 | 35 | 0.60% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.60% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:29 PM | 5.5 | 59.8 | 63% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:40 PM | 5.5 | 59.8 | 63% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:33:07 PM | 5.5 | 59.8 | 63% |