2026 Week 11 · Nov 14, 2026, 8:30 PM · Williams Stadium (VA)
Middle Tennessee @ Liberty
Predicted scoreLikely
Middle Tennessee
20.0
Liberty
35.0
Liberty win probability: 83%
Margin (Liberty − Middle Tennessee): 15.0 (80% range -5 to 35)
Total: 55.0 (80% range 31 to 80)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 38 | 0.69% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.69% |
| 17 | 35 | 0.68% |
| 14 | 31 | 0.68% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.68% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:29 PM | 5.5 | 59.8 | 63% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:40 PM | 5.5 | 59.8 | 63% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:33:07 PM | 5.5 | 59.8 | 63% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:50:00 AM | 5.4 | 59.8 | 63% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:05:08 PM | 5.4 | 59.8 | 63% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:04:00 PM | 6.2 | 59.9 | 65% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:58:17 PM | 9.2 | 60.5 | 71% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:59:52 PM | 5.7 | 58.5 | 64% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:41:52 PM | 5.8 | 58.6 | 64% |
| 9/27/2026, 12:00:51 PM | 6.1 | 58.5 | 64% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:39:44 PM | 6.0 | 58.5 | 64% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:33:51 PM | 9.0 | 56.4 | 71% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:48:08 PM | 15.7 | 55.2 | 83% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:43:49 PM | 15.9 | 54.2 | 84% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:24:22 PM | 15.0 | 55.0 | 83% |