2026 Week 12 · Nov 21, 2026, 5:00 AM · Elliott T. Bowers Stadium
Middle Tennessee @ Sam Houston
Predicted scoreToss-up
Middle Tennessee
28.4
Sam Houston
27.1
Sam Houston win probability: 47%
Margin (Sam Houston − Middle Tennessee): -1.3 (80% range -22 to 20)
Total: 55.5 (80% range 31 to 80)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 24 | 0.71% |
| 31 | 24 | 0.68% |
| 21 | 21 | 0.64% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.63% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.62% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:52 PM | -1.3 | 55.5 | 47% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:56 PM | -1.3 | 55.6 | 47% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:33:51 PM | -1.3 | 55.5 | 47% |