2026 Week 12 · Nov 21, 2026, 5:00 AM · Elliott T. Bowers Stadium
Middle Tennessee @ Sam Houston
Predicted scoreToss-up
Middle Tennessee
25.6
Sam Houston
27.6
Sam Houston win probability: 55%
Margin (Sam Houston − Middle Tennessee): 1.9 (80% range -18 to 22)
Total: 53.2 (80% range 30 to 78)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 24 | 0.75% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.69% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.68% |
| 31 | 24 | 0.66% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.65% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:52 PM | -1.3 | 55.5 | 47% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:56 PM | -1.3 | 55.6 | 47% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:33:51 PM | -1.3 | 55.5 | 47% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:51:05 AM | -1.3 | 55.6 | 47% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:05:50 PM | -1.3 | 55.5 | 47% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:04:35 PM | -1.1 | 55.5 | 47% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:58:36 PM | 0.4 | 57.7 | 51% |
| 9/13/2026, 3:00:34 PM | -0.7 | 57.3 | 48% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:42:37 PM | -0.6 | 57.3 | 48% |
| 9/27/2026, 12:01:58 PM | -0.1 | 57.3 | 50% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:40:00 PM | -0.1 | 57.3 | 50% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:34:09 PM | -0.1 | 54.6 | 50% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:48:24 PM | 4.9 | 55.2 | 62% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:44:28 PM | 4.2 | 53.3 | 60% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:24:33 PM | 1.9 | 53.2 | 55% |