2026 Week 8 · Oct 20, 2026, 11:00 PM · Pitbull Stadium
Middle Tennessee @ Florida International
Predicted scoreLikely
Middle Tennessee
19.8
Florida International
30.2
Florida International win probability: 75%
Margin (Florida International − Middle Tennessee): 10.4 (80% range -10 to 31)
Total: 50.0 (80% range 27 to 73)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 24 | 0.83% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.79% |
| 14 | 24 | 0.78% |
| 17 | 21 | 0.72% |
| 7 | 24 | 0.70% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:45 PM | 6.9 | 54.5 | 67% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:45 PM | 6.9 | 54.5 | 67% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:30:21 PM | 6.9 | 54.5 | 67% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:47:36 AM | 6.9 | 54.5 | 67% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:04:07 PM | 6.8 | 54.5 | 66% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:01:55 PM | 6.5 | 54.5 | 66% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:55:31 PM | 9.4 | 53.3 | 72% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:58:26 PM | 7.4 | 52.1 | 68% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:40:00 PM | 7.4 | 52.1 | 68% |
| 9/27/2026, 11:59:40 AM | 7.6 | 52.2 | 68% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:38:13 PM | 7.6 | 52.2 | 68% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:32:12 PM | 5.2 | 49.9 | 63% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:46:38 PM | 8.5 | 48.6 | 71% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:41:59 PM | 10.3 | 48.5 | 75% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:22:57 PM | 10.4 | 50.0 | 75% |