2026 Week 10 · Nov 7, 2026, 5:00 AM · Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium
Western Kentucky @ Middle Tennessee
Predicted scoreLean
Western Kentucky
28.3
Middle Tennessee
23.8
Middle Tennessee win probability: 39%
Margin (Middle Tennessee − Western Kentucky): -4.5 (80% range -25 to 16)
Total: 52.2 (80% range 30 to 76)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 17 | 0.78% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.72% |
| 24 | 21 | 0.69% |
| 31 | 24 | 0.69% |
| 24 | 14 | 0.66% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:17 PM | -7.0 | 56.8 | 33% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:23 PM | -7.0 | 56.8 | 33% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:32:18 PM | -7.0 | 56.8 | 33% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:49:32 AM | -7.0 | 56.8 | 33% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:05:00 PM | -6.9 | 56.8 | 33% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:03:35 PM | -6.5 | 56.9 | 34% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:57:32 PM | -3.9 | 57.5 | 41% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:59:21 PM | -0.6 | 56.5 | 48% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:41:27 PM | -0.6 | 56.5 | 49% |
| 9/27/2026, 12:00:18 PM | -0.1 | 56.5 | 50% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:38:49 PM | -0.1 | 56.5 | 50% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:33:18 PM | -0.9 | 53.6 | 48% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:47:21 PM | -2.5 | 52.8 | 44% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:43:29 PM | -4.1 | 51.5 | 40% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:23:41 PM | -4.5 | 52.2 | 39% |