2026 Week 7 · Oct 13, 2026, 11:00 PM · Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium
Delaware @ Middle Tennessee
Predicted scoreToss-up
Delaware
26.5
Middle Tennessee
26.0
Middle Tennessee win probability: 49%
Margin (Middle Tennessee − Delaware): -0.4 (80% range -21 to 20)
Total: 52.5 (80% range 30 to 76)
Actual: Delaware 30 – Middle Tennessee 33 (margin error 3.4, total error 10.5)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 24 | 0.74% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.70% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.63% |
| 17 | 17 | 0.61% |
| 21 | 17 | 0.60% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:34 PM | -1.4 | 59.0 | 46% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:31 PM | -1.4 | 59.0 | 46% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:29:38 PM | -1.4 | 59.0 | 46% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:47:14 AM | -1.4 | 59.0 | 46% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:03:36 PM | -1.3 | 59.0 | 47% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:00:52 PM | -1.1 | 58.6 | 47% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:54:48 PM | -0.8 | 58.0 | 48% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:57:51 PM | -4.2 | 52.8 | 40% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:39:55 PM | -4.2 | 52.7 | 40% |
| 9/27/2026, 11:58:50 AM | -3.8 | 52.7 | 41% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:37:27 PM | -3.8 | 52.7 | 41% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:31:22 PM | 1.9 | 52.4 | 55% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:46:19 PM | 0.4 | 52.3 | 51% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:41:56 PM | -0.4 | 52.5 | 49% |