2026 Week 5 · Oct 3, 2026, 4:00 AM · Memorial Stadium
Middle Tennessee @ Kansas
Predicted scoreLikely
Middle Tennessee
19.7
Kansas
34.9
Kansas win probability: 83%
Margin (Kansas − Middle Tennessee): 15.3 (80% range -5 to 36)
Total: 54.6 (80% range 31 to 79)
Actual: Middle Tennessee 0 – Kansas 55 (margin error 39.7, total error 0.4)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 38 | 0.73% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.69% |
| 14 | 31 | 0.64% |
| 14 | 38 | 0.62% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.61% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:04 PM | 19.4 | 63.6 | 88% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:13 PM | 19.4 | 63.6 | 88% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:28:32 PM | 19.4 | 63.6 | 88% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:45:39 AM | 19.4 | 63.6 | 88% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:03:03 PM | 19.5 | 63.6 | 88% |
| 9/8/2026, 5:59:39 PM | 19.4 | 64.0 | 88% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:53:31 PM | 19.5 | 63.6 | 88% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:57:04 PM | 15.2 | 60.6 | 82% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:38:47 PM | 15.2 | 60.7 | 82% |
| 9/27/2026, 11:57:57 AM | 16.0 | 60.7 | 83% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:36:39 PM | 16.0 | 60.7 | 83% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:30:18 PM | 15.3 | 54.6 | 83% |