2026 Week 5 · Oct 3, 2026, 4:00 AM · Memorial Stadium
Middle Tennessee @ Kansas
Predicted scoreConfident
Middle Tennessee
22.1
Kansas
41.5
Kansas win probability: 88%
Margin (Kansas − Middle Tennessee): 19.4 (80% range -2 to 42)
Total: 63.6 (80% range 38 to 90)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 38 | 0.68% |
| 24 | 35 | 0.60% |
| 24 | 38 | 0.60% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.55% |
| 17 | 45 | 0.54% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:04 PM | 19.4 | 63.6 | 88% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:13 PM | 19.4 | 63.6 | 88% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:28:32 PM | 19.4 | 63.6 | 88% |