2026 Week 4 · Sep 26, 2026, 11:00 PM · AmFirst Stadium
Middle Tennessee @ Jacksonville State
Predicted scoreLean
Middle Tennessee
24.3
Jacksonville State
29.8
Jacksonville State win probability: 63%
Margin (Jacksonville State − Middle Tennessee): 5.5 (80% range -14 to 26)
Total: 54.2 (80% range 31 to 79)
Actual: Middle Tennessee 13 – Jacksonville State 23 (margin error 4.5, total error 18.2)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 24 | 0.72% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.71% |
| 24 | 28 | 0.70% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.70% |
| 21 | 31 | 0.64% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:54:49 PM | 8.9 | 56.2 | 71% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:02 PM | 9.0 | 56.1 | 71% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:28:11 PM | 8.9 | 56.1 | 71% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:45:05 AM | 8.6 | 56.2 | 71% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:02:50 PM | 8.8 | 56.1 | 71% |
| 9/8/2026, 5:59:21 PM | 9.5 | 55.7 | 72% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:53:18 PM | 7.7 | 54.6 | 68% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:56:49 PM | 5.5 | 53.9 | 63% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:38:01 PM | 5.5 | 54.2 | 63% |