2026 Week 4 · Sep 26, 2026, 11:00 PM · AmFirst Stadium
Middle Tennessee @ Jacksonville State
Predicted scoreLikely
Middle Tennessee
23.6
Jacksonville State
32.5
Jacksonville State win probability: 71%
Margin (Jacksonville State − Middle Tennessee): 8.9 (80% range -11 to 29)
Total: 56.1 (80% range 31 to 82)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 31 | 0.72% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.64% |
| 17 | 28 | 0.64% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.64% |
| 14 | 31 | 0.63% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:54:49 PM | 8.9 | 56.2 | 71% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:02 PM | 9.0 | 56.1 | 71% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:28:11 PM | 8.9 | 56.1 | 71% |