App State

Sun Belt

2026 rating history

Point-in-time, recency-weighted opponent-adjusted efficiency — recomputed each week from strictly-prior games only.

Upcoming forecasts

Week	Opponent	Predicted score	Win prob
Week 8	vs James Madison	33.7–21.0	21%
Week 9	@ Georgia Southern	31.3–23.9	32%
Week 10	vs Georgia State	28.0–27.6	49%
Week 11	@ Marshall	26.6–27.3	52%
Week 12	vs UL Monroe	19.1–32.5	80%
Week 13	@ South Alabama	32.9–26.7	35%

Past prediction accuracy — 2026

Week	Opponent	Actual	Predicted	Margin error
Week 1	vs Maine	3–55	—	—
Week 2	@ East Carolina	24–27	30.3–22.3	11.0
Week 3	vs Charlotte	21–26	20.4–32.0	6.6
Week 4	@ NC State	41–31	31.1–22.8	1.7
Week 6	vs Old Dominion	10–3	23.8–25.2	8.4
Week 7	@ Coastal Carolina	32–35	23.3–23.5	2.8