2026 Week 9 · Oct 31, 2026, 4:00 AM · Allen E. Paulson Stadium
App State @ Georgia Southern
Predicted scoreLean
App State
23.9
Georgia Southern
31.3
Georgia Southern win probability: 68%
Margin (Georgia Southern − App State): 7.4 (80% range -13 to 28)
Total: 55.2 (80% range 31 to 80)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 24 | 0.80% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.67% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.65% |
| 17 | 21 | 0.64% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.64% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:58 PM | 4.8 | 58.4 | 61% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:03 PM | 4.7 | 58.4 | 61% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:31:33 PM | 4.7 | 58.4 | 61% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:48:31 AM | 4.7 | 58.4 | 61% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:04:34 PM | 4.8 | 58.4 | 61% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:02:24 PM | 4.1 | 58.5 | 60% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:56:13 PM | 4.1 | 58.1 | 60% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:59:11 PM | 3.1 | 53.4 | 58% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:40:51 PM | 3.2 | 53.4 | 58% |
| 9/27/2026, 12:00:10 PM | 4.4 | 53.6 | 61% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:38:38 PM | 4.4 | 53.6 | 61% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:32:39 PM | 4.0 | 56.2 | 60% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:47:06 PM | 4.7 | 55.6 | 62% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:42:48 PM | 7.0 | 53.6 | 67% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:23:27 PM | 7.4 | 55.2 | 68% |