2026 Week 10 · Nov 7, 2026, 5:00 AM · Kidd Brewer Stadium
Georgia State @ App State
Predicted scoreToss-up
Georgia State
28.0
App State
27.6
App State win probability: 49%
Margin (App State − Georgia State): -0.4 (80% range -21 to 20)
Total: 55.6 (80% range 31 to 80)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 24 | 0.73% |
| 31 | 24 | 0.61% |
| 31 | 31 | 0.58% |
| 28 | 21 | 0.56% |
| 21 | 24 | 0.56% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:09 PM | 2.9 | 57.0 | 57% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:17 PM | 2.9 | 57.0 | 57% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:32:09 PM | 2.9 | 57.0 | 57% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:49:05 AM | 2.9 | 57.0 | 57% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:04:54 PM | 3.0 | 57.0 | 57% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:03:20 PM | 2.8 | 56.9 | 57% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:57:08 PM | 2.9 | 56.4 | 57% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:59:49 PM | 4.1 | 57.9 | 60% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:41:10 PM | 4.1 | 57.9 | 60% |
| 9/27/2026, 12:00:32 PM | 4.5 | 57.9 | 61% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:39:12 PM | 4.5 | 57.9 | 61% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:32:59 PM | 3.4 | 58.5 | 58% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:47:29 PM | -1.0 | 57.0 | 48% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:43:14 PM | -1.5 | 54.8 | 46% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:23:53 PM | -0.4 | 55.6 | 49% |