2026 Week 2 · Sep 12, 2026, 4:00 PM · Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium
App State @ East Carolina
Predicted scoreLikely
App State
21.5
East Carolina
31.8
East Carolina win probability: 74%
Margin (East Carolina − App State): 10.3 (80% range -10 to 31)
Total: 53.3 (80% range 30 to 78)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 24 | 0.69% |
| 17 | 28 | 0.66% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.64% |
| 14 | 24 | 0.63% |
| 10 | 24 | 0.61% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:54:20 PM | 10.3 | 53.5 | 74% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:04:23 PM | 10.3 | 53.4 | 74% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:26:27 PM | 10.3 | 53.3 | 74% |