2026 Week 8 · Oct 22, 2026, 11:00 PM · Kidd Brewer Stadium
James Madison @ App State
Predicted scoreLikely
James Madison
33.7
App State
21.0
App State win probability: 21%
Margin (App State − James Madison): -12.6 (80% range -33 to 7)
Total: 54.7 (80% range 31 to 79)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 31 | 17 | 0.73% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.67% |
| 31 | 14 | 0.66% |
| 31 | 24 | 0.63% |
| 38 | 24 | 0.63% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:42 PM | -17.3 | 52.0 | 14% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:46 PM | -17.3 | 52.0 | 14% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:30:24 PM | -17.3 | 52.0 | 14% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:47:39 AM | -17.2 | 52.0 | 14% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:04:09 PM | -17.4 | 52.0 | 14% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:01:58 PM | -16.9 | 52.5 | 14% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:55:34 PM | -15.4 | 52.4 | 16% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:58:24 PM | -11.0 | 53.1 | 24% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:40:02 PM | -11.0 | 53.1 | 24% |
| 9/27/2026, 11:59:38 AM | -10.7 | 53.0 | 25% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:38:15 PM | -10.6 | 53.1 | 25% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:32:13 PM | -12.7 | 55.2 | 22% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:46:39 PM | -12.7 | 55.3 | 21% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:42:01 PM | -12.5 | 53.2 | 22% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:23:06 PM | -12.6 | 54.7 | 21% |