2026 Week 13 · Nov 27, 2026, 8:00 PM · Hancock Whitney Stadium
App State @ South Alabama
Predicted scoreLean
App State
26.7
South Alabama
32.9
South Alabama win probability: 65%
Margin (South Alabama − App State): 6.2 (80% range -14 to 27)
Total: 59.6 (80% range 35 to 86)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 21 | 31 | 0.65% |
| 24 | 28 | 0.63% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.61% |
| 24 | 38 | 0.60% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.58% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:57:09 PM | 5.3 | 55.7 | 62% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:07:01 PM | 5.3 | 55.7 | 62% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:34:07 PM | 5.3 | 55.7 | 62% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:51:24 AM | 5.3 | 55.7 | 62% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:05:53 PM | 5.2 | 55.7 | 62% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:05:22 PM | 4.9 | 55.5 | 62% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:59:37 PM | 4.1 | 55.1 | 60% |
| 9/13/2026, 3:01:09 PM | 4.3 | 59.8 | 60% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:42:43 PM | 4.3 | 59.8 | 60% |
| 9/27/2026, 12:02:25 PM | 4.5 | 59.8 | 61% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:40:43 PM | 4.5 | 59.8 | 61% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:34:40 PM | 3.7 | 58.1 | 59% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:48:58 PM | 4.6 | 59.0 | 61% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:45:02 PM | 5.9 | 56.7 | 64% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:25:10 PM | 6.2 | 59.6 | 65% |