2026 Week 13 · Nov 27, 2026, 8:00 PM · Hancock Whitney Stadium
App State @ South Alabama
Predicted scoreLean
App State
25.2
South Alabama
30.5
South Alabama win probability: 62%
Margin (South Alabama − App State): 5.3 (80% range -14 to 25)
Total: 55.7 (80% range 31 to 80)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 21 | 24 | 0.70% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.69% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.69% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.64% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.61% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:57:09 PM | 5.3 | 55.7 | 62% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:07:01 PM | 5.3 | 55.7 | 62% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:34:07 PM | 5.3 | 55.7 | 62% |