2026 Week 7 · Oct 17, 2026, 12:00 AM · Brooks Stadium (SC)
App State @ Coastal Carolina
Predicted scoreToss-up
App State
23.5
Coastal Carolina
23.3
Coastal Carolina win probability: 49%
Margin (Coastal Carolina − App State): -0.2 (80% range -20 to 20)
Total: 46.8 (80% range 24 to 69)
Actual: App State 35 – Coastal Carolina 32 (margin error 2.8, total error 20.2)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 17 | 0.86% |
| 14 | 17 | 0.79% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.77% |
| 21 | 17 | 0.77% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.77% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:30 PM | 0.7 | 49.6 | 52% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:33 PM | 0.7 | 49.6 | 52% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:29:45 PM | 0.8 | 49.6 | 52% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:47:21 AM | 0.7 | 49.6 | 52% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:03:40 PM | 0.7 | 49.6 | 52% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:00:59 PM | 0.3 | 48.6 | 51% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:54:55 PM | 3.2 | 48.8 | 58% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:57:56 PM | -0.9 | 49.8 | 48% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:39:50 PM | -0.9 | 49.8 | 48% |
| 9/27/2026, 11:59:02 AM | -0.5 | 49.8 | 49% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:37:31 PM | -0.5 | 49.8 | 49% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:31:26 PM | -2.0 | 50.1 | 45% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:46:18 PM | -1.5 | 49.9 | 46% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:41:52 PM | -0.2 | 46.8 | 49% |