App State
Sun Belt
2025 rating history
Point-in-time, recency-weighted opponent-adjusted efficiency — recomputed each week from strictly-prior games only.
Past prediction accuracy — 2025
| Week | Opponent | Actual | Predicted | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | @ Charlotte | 11–34 | 23.2–30.6 | 15.7 |
| Week 3 | @ Southern Miss | 38–22 | 23.2–31.4 | 24.1 |
| Week 5 | @ Boise State | 47–14 | 35.9–20.1 | 17.1 |
| Week 6 | vs Oregon State | 23–27 | 29.2–28.9 | 4.3 |
| Week 7 | @ Georgia State | 20–41 | 28.4–26.7 | 22.7 |
| Week 8 | vs Coastal Carolina | 45–37 | 21.7–23.9 | 10.1 |
| Week 9 | @ Old Dominion | 24–21 | 32.9–20.4 | 9.5 |
| Week 11 | vs Georgia Southern | 25–23 | 29.4–29.7 | 2.3 |
| Week 12 | @ James Madison | 58–10 | 35.3–17.5 | 30.2 |
| Week 13 | vs Marshall | 24–26 | 31.2–26.9 | 6.2 |
| Week 14 | vs Arkansas State | 30–29 | 27.2–28.6 | 2.4 |
| Week 1 | vs Georgia Southern | 29–10 | 29.1–26.1 | 16.0 |