2025 Week 14 · Nov 29, 2025, 7:30 PM · Kidd Brewer Stadium

Arkansas State @ App State

Predicted scoreToss-up

Arkansas State

27.2

App State

28.6

App State win probability: 53%

Margin (App State − Arkansas State): 1.4 (80% range -20 to 22)

Total: 55.8 (80% range 31 to 81)

Actual: Arkansas State 30 – App State 29 (margin error 2.4, total error 3.2)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.