2025 Week 12 · Nov 15, 2025, 8:30 PM · Bridgeforth Stadium

App State @ James Madison

Predicted scoreConfident

App State

17.5

James Madison

35.3

James Madison win probability: 87%

Margin (James Madison − App State): 17.8 (80% range -3 to 38)

Total: 52.9 (80% range 31 to 77)

Actual: App State 10 – James Madison 58 (margin error 30.2, total error 15.1)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.