Predicted scoreToss-up
Marshall
31.2
App State
26.9
App State win probability: 40%
Margin (App State − Marshall): -4.2 (80% range -25 to 17)
Total: 58.1 (80% range 34 to 84)
Actual: Marshall 24 – App State 26 (margin error 6.2, total error 8.1)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 31 | 24 | 0.63% |
| 31 | 17 | 0.60% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.59% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.59% |
| 31 | 31 | 0.57% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.