2025 Week 5 · Sep 27, 2025, 11:30 PM · Albertsons Stadium
App State @ Boise State
Predicted scoreLikely
App State
20.1
Boise State
35.9
Boise State win probability: 84%
Margin (Boise State − App State): 15.9 (80% range -4 to 36)
Total: 56.0 (80% range 32 to 80)
Actual: App State 14 – Boise State 47 (margin error 17.1, total error 5.0)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 14 | 31 | 0.77% |
| 17 | 38 | 0.73% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.73% |
| 17 | 35 | 0.68% |
| 10 | 31 | 0.66% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.