Predicted scoreToss-up
App State
27.3
Marshall
26.6
Marshall win probability: 48%
Margin (Marshall − App State): -0.7 (80% range -21 to 20)
Total: 53.9 (80% range 31 to 79)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 24 | 0.73% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.70% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.66% |
| 21 | 17 | 0.62% |
| 24 | 21 | 0.61% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:30 PM | 5.8 | 56.7 | 64% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:30 PM | 5.9 | 56.7 | 64% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:32:34 PM | 5.9 | 56.7 | 64% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:50:07 AM | 5.8 | 56.7 | 64% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:05:19 PM | 5.8 | 56.7 | 64% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:04:15 PM | 5.9 | 56.2 | 64% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:58:11 PM | 2.8 | 55.4 | 57% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:59:57 PM | -0.7 | 55.2 | 48% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:41:47 PM | -0.7 | 55.2 | 48% |
| 9/27/2026, 12:01:18 PM | -0.2 | 55.3 | 50% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:39:23 PM | -0.2 | 55.4 | 50% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:33:41 PM | 0.9 | 56.4 | 52% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:47:50 PM | 0.4 | 56.1 | 51% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:43:46 PM | -1.5 | 53.0 | 47% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:24:08 PM | -0.7 | 53.9 | 48% |