Predicted scoreLean
App State
25.4
Marshall
31.3
Marshall win probability: 64%
Margin (Marshall − App State): 5.9 (80% range -14 to 27)
Total: 56.7 (80% range 33 to 82)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 31 | 0.71% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.67% |
| 24 | 38 | 0.65% |
| 21 | 24 | 0.65% |
| 21 | 31 | 0.60% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:30 PM | 5.8 | 56.7 | 64% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:30 PM | 5.9 | 56.7 | 64% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:32:34 PM | 5.9 | 56.7 | 64% |