Predicted scoreLikely
UL Monroe
19.1
App State
32.5
App State win probability: 80%
Margin (App State − UL Monroe): 13.4 (80% range -7 to 34)
Total: 51.6 (80% range 30 to 76)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 31 | 0.78% |
| 17 | 28 | 0.70% |
| 10 | 24 | 0.69% |
| 14 | 28 | 0.69% |
| 10 | 31 | 0.69% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:42 PM | 6.4 | 53.0 | 66% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:48 PM | 6.4 | 53.0 | 65% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:33:47 PM | 6.4 | 53.0 | 65% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:51:00 AM | 6.4 | 53.0 | 65% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:05:46 PM | 6.4 | 53.0 | 66% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:04:58 PM | 6.3 | 52.7 | 65% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:58:32 PM | 7.8 | 53.6 | 69% |
| 9/13/2026, 3:00:37 PM | 11.9 | 53.8 | 77% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:42:22 PM | 11.9 | 53.9 | 77% |
| 9/27/2026, 12:01:49 PM | 12.2 | 53.9 | 78% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:40:03 PM | 12.2 | 53.9 | 78% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:34:11 PM | 12.3 | 53.9 | 78% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:48:26 PM | 13.1 | 54.3 | 80% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:44:26 PM | 11.0 | 51.8 | 76% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:24:30 PM | 13.4 | 51.6 | 80% |