Predicted scoreLean
App State
22.8
NC State
31.1
NC State win probability: 70%
Margin (NC State − App State): 8.3 (80% range -13 to 28)
Total: 53.9 (80% range 31 to 78)
Actual: App State 31 – NC State 41 (margin error 1.7, total error 18.1)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 31 | 0.73% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.69% |
| 17 | 38 | 0.69% |
| 21 | 24 | 0.69% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.68% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:54:52 PM | 15.9 | 53.9 | 84% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:04:58 PM | 16.0 | 53.9 | 84% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:27:58 PM | 15.8 | 53.8 | 84% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:45:19 AM | 15.9 | 53.7 | 84% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:02:43 PM | 16.0 | 53.9 | 84% |
| 9/8/2026, 5:59:05 PM | 15.3 | 53.5 | 83% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:52:48 PM | 13.6 | 52.7 | 81% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:56:29 PM | 8.1 | 53.7 | 70% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:37:58 PM | 8.3 | 53.9 | 70% |