Predicted scoreLikely
Charlotte
20.4
App State
32.0
App State win probability: 77%
Margin (App State − Charlotte): 11.6 (80% range -8 to 32)
Total: 52.4 (80% range 30 to 76)
Actual: Charlotte 21 – App State 26 (margin error 6.6, total error 5.4)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 24 | 0.81% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.73% |
| 14 | 24 | 0.72% |
| 17 | 38 | 0.65% |
| 14 | 31 | 0.64% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:54:30 PM | 9.0 | 51.7 | 72% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:04:42 PM | 8.7 | 52.3 | 71% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:27:16 PM | 8.9 | 51.8 | 72% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:44:09 AM | 8.9 | 52.5 | 71% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:02:10 PM | 8.8 | 52.3 | 71% |
| 9/8/2026, 5:58:26 PM | 9.1 | 51.6 | 72% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:52:29 PM | 8.4 | 51.7 | 70% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:56:14 PM | 11.6 | 52.4 | 77% |