2026 Week 6 · Oct 10, 2026, 4:00 AM · Kidd Brewer Stadium
Old Dominion @ App State
Predicted scoreToss-up
Old Dominion
23.8
App State
25.2
App State win probability: 54%
Margin (App State − Old Dominion): 1.4 (80% range -18 to 21)
Total: 49.0 (80% range 27 to 72)
Actual: Old Dominion 10 – App State 3 (margin error 8.4, total error 36.0)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 24 | 0.73% |
| 17 | 17 | 0.72% |
| 21 | 17 | 0.68% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.67% |
| 14 | 17 | 0.67% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:13 PM | -9.9 | 51.0 | 27% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:28 PM | -10.0 | 51.0 | 27% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:29:30 PM | -10.0 | 51.0 | 27% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:46:35 AM | -10.0 | 51.0 | 27% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:03:27 PM | -9.8 | 51.0 | 27% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:00:38 PM | -9.5 | 51.1 | 27% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:54:37 PM | -9.2 | 50.8 | 28% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:57:50 PM | -3.3 | 52.3 | 42% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:39:14 PM | -3.3 | 52.3 | 42% |
| 9/27/2026, 11:58:35 AM | -2.2 | 52.2 | 44% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:37:11 PM | -2.2 | 52.2 | 44% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:31:05 PM | 0.2 | 50.6 | 50% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:46:06 PM | 1.4 | 49.0 | 54% |