Air Force
Mountain West
2025 rating history
Point-in-time, recency-weighted opponent-adjusted efficiency — recomputed each week from strictly-prior games only.
Past prediction accuracy — 2025
| Week | Opponent | Actual | Predicted | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 3 | @ Utah State | 49–30 | 26.6–26.0 | 18.4 |
| Week 4 | vs Boise State | 49–37 | 29.7–22.7 | 5.0 |
| Week 5 | vs Hawai'i | 44–35 | 27.9–28.8 | 9.9 |
| Week 6 | @ Navy | 34–31 | 36.0–19.1 | 13.9 |
| Week 7 | @ UNLV | 51–48 | 37.4–23.7 | 10.7 |
| Week 8 | vs Wyoming | 21–24 | 27.7–27.8 | 2.9 |
| Week 10 | vs Army | 20–17 | 31.5–24.9 | 3.6 |
| Week 11 | @ San José State | 16–26 | 32.1–28.1 | 14.0 |
| Week 12 | @ UConn | 26–16 | 35.1–28.0 | 2.9 |
| Week 13 | vs New Mexico | 20–3 | 32.9–28.7 | 12.8 |
| Week 14 | @ Colorado State | 21–42 | 29.6–28.3 | 22.3 |