2025 Week 6 · Oct 4, 2025, 4:00 PM · Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium

Air Force @ Navy

Predicted scoreConfident

Air Force

19.1

Navy

36.0

Navy win probability: 86%

Margin (Navy − Air Force): 16.9 (80% range -3 to 38)

Total: 55.0 (80% range 31 to 80)

Actual: Air Force 31 – Navy 34 (margin error 13.9, total error 10.0)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.