2025 Week 3 · Sep 14, 2025, 1:45 AM · Maverik Stadium
Air Force @ Utah State
Predicted scoreToss-up
Air Force
26.0
Utah State
26.6
Utah State win probability: 51%
Margin (Utah State − Air Force): 0.6 (80% range -20 to 21)
Total: 52.6 (80% range 30 to 76)
Actual: Air Force 30 – Utah State 49 (margin error 18.4, total error 26.4)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 24 | 0.70% |
| 24 | 21 | 0.70% |
| 21 | 24 | 0.69% |
| 21 | 17 | 0.66% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.66% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.