2025 Week 13 · Nov 23, 2025, 12:00 AM · Falcon Stadium
New Mexico @ Air Force
Predicted scoreLean
New Mexico
32.9
Air Force
28.7
Air Force win probability: 40%
Margin (Air Force − New Mexico): -4.2 (80% range -25 to 17)
Total: 61.6 (80% range 37 to 87)
Actual: New Mexico 20 – Air Force 3 (margin error 12.8, total error 38.6)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 28 | 24 | 0.65% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.64% |
| 31 | 31 | 0.63% |
| 31 | 24 | 0.63% |
| 31 | 28 | 0.60% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.