Predicted scoreToss-up
Hawai'i
27.9
Air Force
28.8
Air Force win probability: 52%
Margin (Air Force − Hawai'i): 0.9 (80% range -20 to 21)
Total: 56.7 (80% range 34 to 82)
Actual: Hawai'i 44 – Air Force 35 (margin error 9.9, total error 22.3)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 21 | 17 | 0.66% |
| 21 | 21 | 0.66% |
| 31 | 24 | 0.65% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.63% |
| 28 | 31 | 0.61% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.