2025 Week 4 · Sep 20, 2025, 11:00 PM · Falcon Stadium
Boise State @ Air Force
Predicted scoreLean
Boise State
29.7
Air Force
22.7
Air Force win probability: 32%
Margin (Air Force − Boise State): -7.0 (80% range -27 to 14)
Total: 52.4 (80% range 30 to 77)
Actual: Boise State 49 – Air Force 37 (margin error 5.0, total error 33.6)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 17 | 0.85% |
| 28 | 24 | 0.74% |
| 24 | 14 | 0.73% |
| 31 | 17 | 0.73% |
| 24 | 21 | 0.71% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.