Predicted scoreLean
Army
31.5
Air Force
24.9
Air Force win probability: 34%
Margin (Air Force − Army): -6.6 (80% range -27 to 14)
Total: 56.4 (80% range 33 to 82)
Actual: Army 20 – Air Force 17 (margin error 3.6, total error 19.4)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 28 | 21 | 0.83% |
| 28 | 24 | 0.83% |
| 28 | 14 | 0.77% |
| 21 | 21 | 0.73% |
| 28 | 17 | 0.71% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.