2025 Week 12 · Nov 15, 2025, 5:00 PM · Pratt & Whitney Stadium

Air Force @ UConn

Predicted scoreLean

Air Force

28.0

UConn

35.1

UConn win probability: 67%

Margin (UConn − Air Force): 7.1 (80% range -14 to 28)

Total: 63.1 (80% range 38 to 90)

Actual: Air Force 16 – UConn 26 (margin error 2.9, total error 21.1)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.