Arkansas State

Sun Belt

2026 rating history

Point-in-time, recency-weighted opponent-adjusted efficiency — recomputed each week from strictly-prior games only.

Upcoming forecasts

Week	Opponent	Predicted score	Win prob
Week 8	vs Georgia State	30.1–28.7	47%
Week 10	vs UL Monroe	20.6–34.0	80%
Week 11	@ Coastal Carolina	27.1–27.0	50%
Week 12	@ Louisiana Tech	32.0–23.3	30%
Week 13	vs Troy	27.3–27.6	51%

Past prediction accuracy — 2026

Week	Opponent	Actual	Predicted	Margin error
Week 1	@ Memphis	42–24	34.8–22.0	5.3
Week 2	vs West Georgia	7–52	—	—
Week 3	@ TCU	31–7	39.6–17.1	1.5
Week 4	vs Kennesaw State	14–17	26.1–29.2	0.1
Week 5	@ Louisiana	23–20	30.6–20.4	7.2
Week 6	vs South Alabama	56–49	32.5–28.8	3.3
Week 7	@ Southern Miss	13–23	29.8–29.6	10.2