2026 Week 11 · Nov 14, 2026, 5:00 AM · Brooks Stadium (SC)
Arkansas State @ Coastal Carolina
Predicted scoreToss-up
Arkansas State
27.0
Coastal Carolina
27.1
Coastal Carolina win probability: 50%
Margin (Coastal Carolina − Arkansas State): 0.0 (80% range -21 to 21)
Total: 54.1 (80% range 31 to 79)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 24 | 0.69% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.62% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.58% |
| 21 | 24 | 0.57% |
| 24 | 21 | 0.56% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:27 PM | 1.6 | 49.7 | 54% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:35 PM | 1.6 | 49.7 | 54% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:33:02 PM | 1.6 | 49.7 | 54% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:49:51 AM | 1.6 | 49.7 | 54% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:05:20 PM | 1.5 | 49.7 | 54% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:04:31 PM | 0.0 | 50.2 | 50% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:58:12 PM | 2.8 | 51.9 | 57% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:59:57 PM | 3.4 | 51.6 | 59% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:41:57 PM | 3.5 | 51.6 | 59% |
| 9/27/2026, 12:01:12 PM | 3.8 | 51.6 | 60% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:39:31 PM | 3.8 | 51.6 | 60% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:33:43 PM | 2.7 | 52.7 | 57% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:48:02 PM | 2.0 | 52.4 | 55% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:43:32 PM | 1.3 | 54.0 | 53% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:24:18 PM | 0.0 | 54.1 | 50% |