2026 Week 11 · Nov 14, 2026, 5:00 AM · Brooks Stadium (SC)
Arkansas State @ Coastal Carolina
Predicted scoreToss-up
Arkansas State
24.1
Coastal Carolina
25.7
Coastal Carolina win probability: 54%
Margin (Coastal Carolina − Arkansas State): 1.6 (80% range -18 to 21)
Total: 49.7 (80% range 27 to 73)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 24 | 0.85% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.68% |
| 17 | 21 | 0.66% |
| 17 | 17 | 0.64% |
| 17 | 14 | 0.61% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:27 PM | 1.6 | 49.7 | 54% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:35 PM | 1.6 | 49.7 | 54% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:33:02 PM | 1.6 | 49.7 | 54% |