2026 Week 1 · Sep 5, 2026, 11:00 PM · Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium
Arkansas State @ Memphis
Predicted scoreLikely
Arkansas State
21.9
Memphis
34.7
Memphis win probability: 78%
Margin (Memphis − Arkansas State): 12.8 (80% range -7 to 34)
Total: 56.6 (80% range 33 to 82)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 31 | 0.68% |
| 14 | 24 | 0.67% |
| 24 | 38 | 0.67% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.60% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.60% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:54:10 PM | 12.7 | 56.7 | 78% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:04:19 PM | 12.8 | 56.7 | 79% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:26:10 PM | 12.8 | 56.6 | 78% |