2026 Week 7 · Oct 17, 2026, 4:00 AM · M. M. Roberts Stadium
Arkansas State @ Southern Miss
Predicted scoreToss-up
Arkansas State
29.6
Southern Miss
29.8
Southern Miss win probability: 51%
Margin (Southern Miss − Arkansas State): 0.2 (80% range -21 to 21)
Total: 59.5 (80% range 35 to 86)
Actual: Arkansas State 23 – Southern Miss 13 (margin error 10.2, total error 23.5)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 31 | 31 | 0.61% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.60% |
| 31 | 24 | 0.56% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.55% |
| 24 | 28 | 0.52% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:37 PM | 2.7 | 55.2 | 57% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:40 PM | 2.7 | 55.2 | 57% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:30:10 PM | 2.7 | 55.2 | 57% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:47:04 AM | 2.7 | 55.2 | 57% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:03:41 PM | 2.7 | 55.2 | 57% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:01:25 PM | 2.6 | 55.2 | 56% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:55:14 PM | 1.9 | 56.3 | 55% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:58:17 PM | 1.6 | 55.8 | 54% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:39:39 PM | 1.6 | 55.8 | 54% |
| 9/27/2026, 11:58:57 AM | 2.3 | 55.7 | 56% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:37:35 PM | 2.3 | 55.7 | 56% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:31:30 PM | 1.7 | 54.8 | 54% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:46:29 PM | 0.2 | 55.6 | 51% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:41:35 PM | 0.2 | 59.5 | 51% |