2026 Week 7 · Oct 17, 2026, 4:00 AM · M. M. Roberts Stadium
Arkansas State @ Southern Miss
Predicted scoreToss-up
Arkansas State
26.3
Southern Miss
28.9
Southern Miss win probability: 57%
Margin (Southern Miss − Arkansas State): 2.7 (80% range -18 to 24)
Total: 55.2 (80% range 31 to 80)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 31 | 0.71% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.66% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.66% |
| 21 | 24 | 0.64% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.61% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:37 PM | 2.7 | 55.2 | 57% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:40 PM | 2.7 | 55.2 | 57% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:30:10 PM | 2.7 | 55.2 | 57% |