2026 Week 12 · Nov 19, 2026, 5:00 AM · Joe Aillet Stadium
Arkansas State @ Louisiana Tech
Predicted scoreLikely
Arkansas State
23.3
Louisiana Tech
32.0
Louisiana Tech win probability: 70%
Margin (Louisiana Tech − Arkansas State): 8.7 (80% range -11 to 29)
Total: 55.4 (80% range 31 to 80)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 31 | 0.69% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.63% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.61% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.61% |
| 21 | 31 | 0.60% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:47 PM | 6.1 | 52.8 | 65% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:48 PM | 6.1 | 52.8 | 65% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:33:47 PM | 6.1 | 52.8 | 65% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:50:59 AM | 6.1 | 52.8 | 65% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:05:35 PM | 6.0 | 52.8 | 65% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:05:08 PM | 5.6 | 53.1 | 64% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:58:27 PM | 7.3 | 54.5 | 67% |
| 9/13/2026, 3:00:40 PM | 6.6 | 51.2 | 66% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:42:26 PM | 6.6 | 51.1 | 66% |
| 9/27/2026, 12:01:40 PM | 6.8 | 51.3 | 66% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:40:13 PM | 6.8 | 51.3 | 66% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:34:22 PM | 7.1 | 51.4 | 67% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:48:19 PM | 7.8 | 54.3 | 68% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:44:36 PM | 7.1 | 56.5 | 67% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:24:43 PM | 8.7 | 55.4 | 70% |