2026 Week 12 · Nov 19, 2026, 5:00 AM · Joe Aillet Stadium
Arkansas State @ Louisiana Tech
Predicted scoreLean
Arkansas State
23.4
Louisiana Tech
29.4
Louisiana Tech win probability: 65%
Margin (Louisiana Tech − Arkansas State): 6.1 (80% range -14 to 27)
Total: 52.8 (80% range 30 to 77)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 24 | 0.76% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.76% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.69% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.63% |
| 21 | 24 | 0.60% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:47 PM | 6.1 | 52.8 | 65% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:48 PM | 6.1 | 52.8 | 65% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:33:47 PM | 6.1 | 52.8 | 65% |