2026 Week 5 · Oct 3, 2026, 4:00 AM · Cajun Field
Arkansas State @ Louisiana
Predicted scoreLean
Arkansas State
23.6
Louisiana
29.1
Louisiana win probability: 63%
Margin (Louisiana − Arkansas State): 5.5 (80% range -14 to 25)
Total: 52.7 (80% range 30 to 77)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 24 | 0.66% |
| 21 | 21 | 0.66% |
| 21 | 24 | 0.64% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.62% |
| 21 | 31 | 0.60% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:05 PM | 5.5 | 52.7 | 63% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:08 PM | 5.5 | 52.7 | 63% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:28:37 PM | 5.5 | 52.7 | 63% |