2026 Week 5 · Oct 3, 2026, 4:00 AM · Cajun Field
Arkansas State @ Louisiana
Predicted scoreLikely
Arkansas State
20.4
Louisiana
30.6
Louisiana win probability: 74%
Margin (Louisiana − Arkansas State): 10.2 (80% range -10 to 31)
Total: 51.1 (80% range 28 to 75)
Actual: Arkansas State 20 – Louisiana 23 (margin error 7.2, total error 8.1)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 24 | 0.90% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.71% |
| 14 | 24 | 0.66% |
| 17 | 28 | 0.64% |
| 10 | 24 | 0.62% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:05 PM | 5.5 | 52.7 | 63% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:08 PM | 5.5 | 52.7 | 63% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:28:37 PM | 5.5 | 52.7 | 63% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:46:02 AM | 5.5 | 52.7 | 63% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:02:56 PM | 5.5 | 52.7 | 63% |
| 9/8/2026, 5:59:33 PM | 5.2 | 53.0 | 63% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:53:51 PM | 5.6 | 54.4 | 63% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:57:10 PM | 8.0 | 56.1 | 69% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:38:34 PM | 8.0 | 56.1 | 69% |
| 9/27/2026, 11:58:04 AM | 8.3 | 56.1 | 70% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:36:44 PM | 8.3 | 56.1 | 70% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:30:41 PM | 10.2 | 51.1 | 74% |