2026 Week 8 · Oct 24, 2026, 4:00 AM · Centennial Bank Stadium
Georgia State @ Arkansas State
Predicted scoreToss-up
Georgia State
30.1
Arkansas State
28.7
Arkansas State win probability: 47%
Margin (Arkansas State − Georgia State): -1.4 (80% range -22 to 20)
Total: 58.9 (80% range 34 to 84)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 31 | 0.66% |
| 31 | 24 | 0.64% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.63% |
| 31 | 31 | 0.61% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.57% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:43 PM | 4.8 | 56.5 | 62% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:57 PM | 4.8 | 56.5 | 62% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:30:59 PM | 4.8 | 56.5 | 62% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:48:13 AM | 4.8 | 56.5 | 62% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:04:06 PM | 4.8 | 56.5 | 62% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:01:53 PM | 3.2 | 56.0 | 58% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:56:08 PM | 3.1 | 57.9 | 57% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:58:28 PM | 1.2 | 57.5 | 53% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:40:28 PM | 1.2 | 57.5 | 53% |
| 9/27/2026, 11:59:31 AM | 1.6 | 57.5 | 54% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:38:05 PM | 1.6 | 57.4 | 54% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:32:08 PM | -1.1 | 58.8 | 47% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:46:57 PM | -2.6 | 58.5 | 44% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:42:25 PM | -3.0 | 60.4 | 43% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:23:09 PM | -1.4 | 58.9 | 47% |