2026 Week 8 · Oct 24, 2026, 4:00 AM · Centennial Bank Stadium
Georgia State @ Arkansas State
Predicted scoreLean
Georgia State
25.8
Arkansas State
30.7
Arkansas State win probability: 62%
Margin (Arkansas State − Georgia State): 4.8 (80% range -16 to 25)
Total: 56.5 (80% range 33 to 82)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 31 | 0.71% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.65% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.65% |
| 31 | 24 | 0.57% |
| 24 | 28 | 0.56% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:43 PM | 4.8 | 56.5 | 62% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:57 PM | 4.8 | 56.5 | 62% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:30:59 PM | 4.8 | 56.5 | 62% |