2026 Week 4 · Sep 26, 2026, 4:00 AM · Centennial Bank Stadium
Kennesaw State @ Arkansas State
Predicted scoreToss-up
Kennesaw State
26.1
Arkansas State
29.2
Arkansas State win probability: 58%
Margin (Arkansas State − Kennesaw State): 3.1 (80% range -17 to 24)
Total: 55.2 (80% range 31 to 80)
Actual: Kennesaw State 14 – Arkansas State 17 (margin error 0.1, total error 24.2)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 24 | 0.73% |
| 21 | 24 | 0.64% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.64% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.63% |
| 24 | 28 | 0.61% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:54:45 PM | -0.2 | 54.8 | 50% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:02 PM | -0.2 | 54.8 | 49% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:28:11 PM | -0.3 | 54.9 | 49% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:45:04 AM | -0.2 | 54.8 | 50% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:02:50 PM | -0.0 | 54.8 | 50% |
| 9/8/2026, 5:59:22 PM | -0.5 | 55.5 | 49% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:53:17 PM | 0.3 | 55.3 | 51% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:56:49 PM | 3.2 | 55.6 | 58% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:38:00 PM | 3.1 | 55.2 | 58% |