2026 Week 4 · Sep 26, 2026, 4:00 AM · Centennial Bank Stadium
Kennesaw State @ Arkansas State
Predicted scoreToss-up
Kennesaw State
27.6
Arkansas State
27.3
Arkansas State win probability: 49%
Margin (Arkansas State − Kennesaw State): -0.3 (80% range -21 to 21)
Total: 54.9 (80% range 31 to 80)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 24 | 0.77% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.67% |
| 31 | 24 | 0.62% |
| 21 | 24 | 0.60% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.59% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:54:45 PM | -0.2 | 54.8 | 50% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:02 PM | -0.2 | 54.8 | 49% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:28:11 PM | -0.3 | 54.9 | 49% |