2026 Week 3 · Sep 20, 2026, 12:00 AM · Amon G. Carter Stadium
Arkansas State @ TCU
Predicted scoreConfident
Arkansas State
17.1
TCU
39.6
TCU win probability: 92%
Margin (TCU − Arkansas State): 22.5 (80% range 2 to 44)
Total: 56.7 (80% range 34 to 82)
Actual: Arkansas State 7 – TCU 31 (margin error 1.5, total error 18.7)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 14 | 31 | 0.68% |
| 10 | 38 | 0.68% |
| 17 | 38 | 0.65% |
| 10 | 45 | 0.64% |
| 10 | 31 | 0.63% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:54:40 PM | 22.9 | 56.7 | 92% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:04:47 PM | 22.8 | 56.6 | 92% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:27:30 PM | 22.9 | 56.7 | 92% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:44:25 AM | 22.8 | 56.8 | 92% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:02:14 PM | 23.1 | 56.6 | 92% |
| 9/8/2026, 5:58:12 PM | 22.4 | 56.6 | 91% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:52:01 PM | 22.9 | 55.9 | 92% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:55:51 PM | 22.5 | 56.7 | 92% |