2026 Week 3 · Sep 20, 2026, 12:00 AM · Amon G. Carter Stadium
Arkansas State @ TCU
Predicted scoreConfident
Arkansas State
16.9
TCU
39.8
TCU win probability: 92%
Margin (TCU − Arkansas State): 22.9 (80% range 3 to 45)
Total: 56.7 (80% range 34 to 82)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 14 | 38 | 0.76% |
| 7 | 31 | 0.76% |
| 10 | 38 | 0.73% |
| 10 | 31 | 0.68% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.65% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:54:40 PM | 22.9 | 56.7 | 92% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:04:47 PM | 22.8 | 56.6 | 92% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:27:30 PM | 22.9 | 56.7 | 92% |