2026 Week 6 · Oct 8, 2026, 11:30 PM · Centennial Bank Stadium
South Alabama @ Arkansas State
Predicted scoreToss-up
South Alabama
29.2
Arkansas State
27.5
Arkansas State win probability: 46%
Margin (Arkansas State − South Alabama): -1.7 (80% range -22 to 19)
Total: 56.6 (80% range 33 to 82)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 31 | 24 | 0.72% |
| 21 | 24 | 0.60% |
| 24 | 21 | 0.57% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.57% |
| 28 | 24 | 0.56% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:14 PM | -1.7 | 56.6 | 46% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:18 PM | -1.7 | 56.6 | 46% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:29:00 PM | -1.7 | 56.6 | 46% |