2026 Week 6 · Oct 8, 2026, 11:30 PM · Centennial Bank Stadium
South Alabama @ Arkansas State
Predicted scoreToss-up
South Alabama
32.5
Arkansas State
28.8
Arkansas State win probability: 41%
Margin (Arkansas State − South Alabama): -3.7 (80% range -25 to 17)
Total: 61.3 (80% range 37 to 87)
Actual: South Alabama 56 – Arkansas State 49 (margin error 3.3, total error 43.7)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 31 | 31 | 0.61% |
| 31 | 24 | 0.59% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.58% |
| 31 | 21 | 0.57% |
| 38 | 31 | 0.56% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:14 PM | -1.7 | 56.6 | 46% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:18 PM | -1.7 | 56.6 | 46% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:29:00 PM | -1.7 | 56.6 | 46% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:46:48 AM | -1.6 | 56.6 | 46% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:03:34 PM | -1.7 | 56.6 | 45% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:00:13 PM | -1.8 | 56.8 | 45% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:54:05 PM | -0.8 | 58.0 | 48% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:57:32 PM | -4.4 | 61.0 | 39% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:39:20 PM | -4.4 | 61.0 | 39% |
| 9/27/2026, 11:58:24 AM | -4.1 | 60.9 | 40% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:37:03 PM | -4.1 | 60.9 | 40% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:30:48 PM | -4.0 | 58.6 | 41% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:46:00 PM | -3.7 | 61.3 | 41% |