2026 Week 10 · Nov 7, 2026, 5:00 AM · Centennial Bank Stadium
UL Monroe @ Arkansas State
Predicted scoreLikely
UL Monroe
20.6
Arkansas State
34.0
Arkansas State win probability: 80%
Margin (Arkansas State − UL Monroe): 13.4 (80% range -7 to 35)
Total: 54.6 (80% range 31 to 79)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 31 | 0.78% |
| 17 | 28 | 0.69% |
| 17 | 38 | 0.68% |
| 21 | 31 | 0.64% |
| 14 | 24 | 0.62% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:10 PM | 7.0 | 52.9 | 67% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:23 PM | 6.9 | 52.9 | 67% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:32:17 PM | 7.0 | 52.9 | 67% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:49:30 AM | 7.0 | 53.0 | 67% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:04:59 PM | 7.1 | 53.0 | 67% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:03:34 PM | 7.3 | 52.5 | 67% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:57:31 PM | 8.7 | 55.3 | 70% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:59:20 PM | 8.3 | 53.8 | 70% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:41:26 PM | 8.3 | 53.8 | 70% |
| 9/27/2026, 12:00:17 PM | 9.3 | 54.0 | 72% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:38:49 PM | 9.3 | 54.0 | 72% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:33:16 PM | 7.9 | 55.1 | 69% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:47:41 PM | 9.7 | 55.9 | 73% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:43:05 PM | 10.6 | 56.9 | 74% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:24:01 PM | 13.4 | 54.6 | 80% |