2026 Week 10 · Nov 7, 2026, 5:00 AM · Centennial Bank Stadium
UL Monroe @ Arkansas State
Predicted scoreLean
UL Monroe
23.0
Arkansas State
29.9
Arkansas State win probability: 67%
Margin (Arkansas State − UL Monroe): 7.0 (80% range -14 to 28)
Total: 52.9 (80% range 30 to 77)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 24 | 0.78% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.74% |
| 21 | 24 | 0.72% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.71% |
| 17 | 21 | 0.66% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:10 PM | 7.0 | 52.9 | 67% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:23 PM | 6.9 | 52.9 | 67% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:32:17 PM | 7.0 | 52.9 | 67% |